A post Coronavirus world shall be little different, though right now with focus on survival, this world is not on our horizon.
The virus has definitely originated in Wuhan, and from there spread across the world. Whether the mutation was in a lab, accidentally released, or occurred naturally, and then transmitted via the Wuhan Wet Market, would never be known, considering the secretive Chinese policies. The Chinese are hiding something - whether it's number of deaths, origins of this virus, or why it never reached Beijing and Shanghai. To deflect attention, as a counter IW, the Chinese are suggesting that the 300 US personnel in World Military Games released it, an absurd claim, but nevertheless it's there, and shall be repeated. The Chinese are also scrubbing their old articles on the internet, replacing the word Wuhan virus with Coronavirus. Even the past is not safe!
As regards future, the situation is still unfolding. If the US is able to get it under control in next two to three weeks or so, the damage to their economy shall be manageable. If it spills over, then the US economy and credibility, both shall take a hit. However, we are underestimating the power of US to mobilise and bounce back. US fluctuates between isolationism and activism. They were reluctant warriors in WW I, it took a Pearl Harbour in WW II to get them into action, and it took 9/11 for them to wake up to Islamic fundamentalism. But once kick-started, the American enterprise is unstoppable.
Europe has also blundered through, not understanding the gravity of the situation, and the speed of spread. Italy and Spain are not decision makers in Brussels, but can influence future economic policies. Overall the health care system of Europe has come under strain, and economy has taken a hit. The countries of southern Europe; Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal with heavy dependence on tourism, shall be significantly impacted.
India is managing little better. Our population and limited medical facilities are a cause of concern, while the proactive approach taken till now is a positive. More than anything, the current lockdown has given India time to prepare and plan.
As regards the Middle East, generally the world shall let them be, expect less of interventions. Post the Coronavirus, the oil shall take year to touch USD 50 and shall remain in, at best, USD 60-75 bracket for a long time possibly never exceeding it. Expect Saudis to open up, and soften up, as they diversify, and Iran to become less aggressive as they look inwards and recover.
Overall, it would not be business as usual with the Chinese. Anybody can make biological weapons and fudge figures. Or eat bats. It just requires lower moral standards. The trust deficit with the Chinese shall widen, and the trade war shall accelerate. International bodies like WHO, who presumably under the Chinese influence and generous aid, delayed notifying it as pandemic, shall come under scrutiny, and definitely see a change in leadership.
My understanding is that the Chinese shall not gain from this entire episode. World leadership is not only about buying undervalued shares, it is based on certain universal values and a culture which is aspirational. The Chinese stock market is tightly regulated, and hence not reflective of the realities. If money could buy world leadership, the Japanese in 1990s would have bought it.
Economically, we shall move towards localisation, work-from-home models and some move towards sustainable development. Chinese cheap manufacturing shall lose many clients and markets. BRI (Italy was the first in Europe to sign up, and see what happened), shall slow down. Earlier, the saying was that beware of Greeks bearing gifts (from the Trojan horse story), and now it may be Chinese investments which shall come under greater scrutiny.
Possibly, the world has found a new evil, after Nazis and communism, and the hiding of facts by Chinese is only accentuating it.
(The writer is an analyst on matters related to defence and global politics)