Private weather forecasting agency Skymet on Tuesday predicted a 'normal' monsoon for India this year, indicating it to be the fourth consecutive year of 'normal' summer rains during June-September period. It said there is a 65% chance of normal rainfall in the country in 2022.
In what could be a positive signal for India's farm sector that performed quite well despite the challenges faced during the Covid-19 pandemic-hit years, the Skymet said, "Punjab, Haryana and UP, the agriculture bowl of north India, and rain-fed areas of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh will witness above normal rainfall."
According to its prediction, the first half of the season (June-July) is expected to be better than the latter (August-September). "Monsoon is likely to make a decent start during the onset month of June," said the Skymet. The private weather forecasting agency expected the upcoming monsoon to be 'normal' to the tune of 98% (with an error margin of +/- 5%) of the long period average (LPA) of 880.6 mm of rainfall during the four-month season.
In terms of geographical risks, the Skymet, however, expected Rajasthan and Gujarat along with Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura of the northeast region to be at risk of being rain deficient throughout the season. Besides, Kerala and north interior Karnataka will witness scanty rains in core monsoon months of July and August.
Skymet Weather Services CEO said that the occurrence of El Nino, which normally negatively affects the monsoon, is ruled out. "However, pulsating behaviour of the monsoon is expected to transpire abrupt and intense rains, interspersed by abnormally long dry spells," he said.
The Skymet's prediction shows 10% chance of 'above normal' (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110% of LPA), 65% chance of the 'normal' (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104% of LPA) and 25% chance of 'below normal' (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95% of LPA) rainfall.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD), the country's national weather forecasting agency, too is expected to release its monsoon forecast this week.
(With inputs from agencies)