What will you do when you faced with a recalcitrant child? Neither is he able to conduct his business properly on his own nor he listens to the elders’ advice! Propositions are tough before you. If you use the rod, you’ll be blamed for spoiling the brat, and if you let him go unchecked, he will prove a headache for the family.
The above analogy could be used for Pakistan, a rogue state which often blurts out at international forums when hit hard by India, but soon forgets injuries inflicted on it and starts indulging in nefarious acts again. In fact, a state suffering from paranoia becomes really hard to deal with. India is witnessing the same with Pakistan in the case of its national Kulbhushan Jadhav, who is sentenced to death by a Pakistani military court.
After its defeat at the International Court (ICJ) in The Hague last week, Pakistan Government led by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharief and its almighty army got flak from all quarters within that country. The ICJ has stayed execution of Jadhav till its final verdict in the case is delivered. It was a moment of jubilation for India and an air of triumphalism was visible everywhere in the country. The Narendra Modi Government took pride in its prompt decision to approach an international court, though it was quite unusual for a country which has generally been averse to taking a bilateral issue to an international forum.
However, it massaged the hurt pride of a nation which had been a victim of Pakistan sponsored terrorism for long. It came close on the heels of the beheading of two jawans by Pakistan’s murderous Border Action Team in the Krishna Valley of Jammu and Kashmir. The Opposition parties had raked the issue vociferously and even questioned the Government’s claims that the issue of terrorism had been dropped after the surgical strike across the borders by Indian Army.
Hence, the victory in the Peace Palace in The Hague was a much needed relief for the Modi Government and it had the reasons to rejoice and take pride in. However, it was fully aware that the recent victory at the ICJ was ephemeral: it has to fight a long battle before Kulbhushan is brought back home and it can legitimately claim the victory over Pakistan. In fact, it’s a treacherous path which India needs to tread cautiously given the past records of Pakistani establishment.
However, it seems the Pakistan Government and its army felt the tight slap on their with the ICJ order going against them. Hence, it is obvious for them to look for ways to save their face. The public statements coming from Pakistani officials in the aftermath of the ICJ order should be understood in this perspective.
One of the India’s pleas before the ICJ was that Pakistan did not give consular access to Jadhav despite New Delhi’s repeated requests. It seems Pakistan is no mood to grant consular access to Jadhav even after the ICJ order. Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s foreign affairs adviser Sartaj Aziz has said that the ICJ hasn’t given any order regarding consular access for Jadhav. He was quoted by Pakistani media as saying, “Wrong to say Pakistan lost at ICJ, court stayed execution, (but) didn't order consular access to Jadhav.”
Aziz’s statement betrays the heartburn the ICJ order has caused in the Pakistani establishment. The situation has reached to such a point that Pakistani government is finding it hard to defend its legal team at the ICJ. Pakistani media and analysts are bashing it relentlessly for “its failures to put its case strongly before the court”. It is reported that Pakistan has demanded a review of the ICJ order claiming that they could not present all sides of the Jadhav case in the last hearing. According to Pakistani media, they have challenged the jurisdiction of the ICJ itself in the case.
There is an interesting and very unique proposition with Pakistan: when the Pakistani Government loses a battle against India, its army feels legitimated. Hence, Nawaz Sharif’s Government has to fight twin battles in the Jadhav case – one at the ICJ court and second with its army which always looks for opportunities to pin it down. With the Panama Papers coming into public domain, the position of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has become more precarious. In the prevailing circumstances, he cannot afford to lose a battle against India. His government will do whatever it takes to win the fight against India at the ICJ and will try to placate the army too, which is believed to have originally invented the Jadhav case to checkmate his government.
It was reported that Jadhav, an ex-Indian Naval officer, was picked up from Iran, but shown to have been arrested in Pakistani territory on the charges of hobnobbing with Balochistani rebels. On Sunday, Pakistan’s National Assembly speaker Sardar Ayaz Sadiq was quoted as saying that the Pakistan Army would jointly fight the case with the civilian government at the ICJ. The statement of Assembly speaker makes it abundantly clear that the Pakistani Government is putting in considerable efforts to keep the Army, which has considerable clout in the country, in a good humour.
Owing to prevailing circumstances in Pakistan, it is going to be a treacherous path for India to bring Jadhav back home without any harm. However, the only solace that India can take is that Pakistani High Commissioner Abdul Basithas said that Islamabad will abide by the international court’s ruling staying Jadhav's death sentence. This is the first assurance that has come from Pakistan after ICJ order which assures that Jadhav’s life is safe for the time being in Pakistan.
Jadhav has some legal options as per Pakistan’s domestic laws too which he can exercise, like appealing against his execution in the appellate court, filing mercy petition before the Pakistan Army chief and seeking mercy from Pakistani President. However, anybody could imagine the outcome of these exercises in the current scenario.
Even if India wins the battle at ICJ, it’s not a guarantee that Pakistan will abide by it. Pakistan has repeatedly said that its domestic laws will take precedence over ICJ ruling. More so, when it is out to make a case of India’s culpability in fomenting terrorism in its territory, it is next to impossible to get a concession for Jadhav from Pakistan.
In the above scenarios, it would be prudent for India to give a face saving route to Pakistani establishment in order to bring Jadhav back home safely. But, what route India should take is a big question which only mandarins of Foreign Affairs Ministry can decide.
(The writer is Executive Editor, Live India News Channel)