With the election schedule in place for the Gujarat Assembly polls in December 2017, the two mainstream parties, Congress and the BJP, have pulled up their sleeves to win the battle. Congress is fully engrossed in creating an anti incumbency environment through the social media apart from the print and the electronic one whereas the BJP is leaving no stone unturned to retain the confidence of the Gujarati voter and ensure once again that the Congress is well knocked out.
Congress is looking at this election as defining its future political relevance in the national politics, more so in Gujarat. This election is also being seen as the last test of Rahul Gandhi’s efficacy as a political leader. Will he emerge as the natural heir of the Gandhi dynasty or will miss the train in the process is a question that might require to be settled on the basis of the electoral outcome of these elections.
Congress has already written off its chances in Himachal Pradesh, it seems. It is natural in view of the predominant tag of corruption and non performance on promises in that state by the party. The state also has a history of sorts for exchanging governments by one to the other party.
Congress’ game plan is to focus on social reengineering by getting certain castes together to weave a political fabric to be donned by it. The social chemistry to win the state is sought to be formulated that is based on the old formulae of bringing the Kshatriya, Harijan (Dalit),Adivasi and Muslim -- KHAM, together by creating, sustaining and strengthening an anti government mood among them. All efforts have been made to woe Patidars through Hardik Patel, the Dalits through Jignesh Mavani and the OBCs through getting Alpesh Thakor to join Congress.
In this game the party is leaving no chance to present the BJP as anti-Dalit, anti-Kisan and anti-poor party. The Congress is hammering on the declining growth rate, declining job rate and adverse impact of demonetization and GST on the economy and the people. Pertinently, the questions that arise here are whether these gimmicks will pay political dividends to the Congress; whether the castes that are being counted by the Congress because of the support of the trio leaguers will deliver votes to it and whether Congress cross the power banks in Gujarat on the borrowed clutches without a united front within its own architecture with a demoralized, disorganised and disgruntled foot soldiers on the political battlefield.
Another very relevant issue influencing the electoral outcome in Gujarat as well as in Himachal Pradesh would be how the Congress responds and overcomes the persistent popular view that it represents corruption, mal-governance, mis-governance and politics of compromise in their worst form. The party is passing through its worst ever political survival crisis after independence. It suffers from credibility and leadership crisis too.
Keeping the leaders like Jignesh Patel and Hardik Patel out of the party frame is also under well crafted political strategy. But it also exposes the lack of confidence in the Congress about their acceptability among the masses. So if these leaders are inducted into the party as formal members, they may also lose their credentials. The kind of drama is being enacted even on the issue of OBC reservation where Congress is delaying it deliberately to make it a surprise announcement.
Now, about the BJP. The party is going to the voters with a clean image of the government with no charges of any scam, establishing deeply its commitment to provide a corruption free, honest and transparent government. The factors favourable to the BJP are -- (i) the charismatic leadership of NarendraModi (ii) the view among the Gujaratis that development can be better assured if the same party holds reins of government both in the state as well as at the centre(iii) fairly good performance by the state government relating to the development and improvement of social and economic infrastructure in Gujarat and satisfying delivery on the promises of Bijali, Sadak, Pani as well (iv) the Congress chief ministers and ministers facing allegations of corruption in the party ruled states like Himachal and Karnataka, (v) the track record of the NJP’s good governance to improve the life conditions of all sections, especially the poor, in the states ruled by it like MP, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh,UP, Assam and count (vi) its ability to push forward development as the core of its electoral agenda and overshadow the politics of caste there (vii) it’s fairly convincing record of fighting against corruption, black money, terror (viii) a successful foreign policy especially playing a crucial role in bringing the world view around its own on terrorism, Indo pacific challenges, isolating Pakistan, firmly facing the threats from China in Doklam, decisive role in BRICS and emerging regional power and (ix) the failure of the Congress to question the performance of the state government and mainly raising the national policy issues. The presence of AAP may also benefit the BJP
Having said that, it is imperative to search for the challenges it faces in the state of Gujarat. The first and the foremost challenge is the challenge from the propaganda by the union of the affected parties against alleged failure of the policies framed and implemented by the central government (ii)The allegation that Modi has been engaged only in jumlas (iii) the deteriorating condition of the job market, the poor and the kisan.The BJP shall have to effectively counter these opposition charges to retain power in the state. Let us see.
(The writer is senior Consultant, Indira Gandhi National Open University, New Delhi)