The bitterly fought state assembly elections are over with BJP firmly in the saddle, both at Himachal and also Gujarat. The brute majority margins of victory that one witnessedsome time ago have declined; the number of seats in Gujarat has gone down, from 115 to the current 99, a cause of worry.

In Himachal too one expected with near similar conditions and charges of corruption, a result with brute majority like Uttarakhand.  Today Uttarakhand has 57 out of 70 that is81% BJP legislators; Congress was nearly reduced to single figures but managed 11. The BJP in Himachal has won 44 seats out of 68 which is 64%, thus this too is a worrisome factor. There are other issues like vote share etc that needs analysis but the major take away is that the Congress is on the revival rather than a “Congress Mukth Bharat”.

The next take away is in a democracy a healthy opposition is mandatory and the Indian democracy gets more vibrant with this result. How will this play out for more state elections which are due in Mizoram, Tripura, Nagaland, and Meghalaya and of course Karnataka,is the big question.

If the BJP had won 140 seats in Gujarat and 50 plus seats in Himachal, the results of next year’s elections would at best have been academic, but now the window of hope for the opposition may be opening up, on the other hand for the BJP it is a wakeup call.

Both Himachal and Uttarakhand are hill states with Himachal acquiring the status of a state earlier thus comparisons often taking place. In both the states the contests are bipolar but Uttarakhand initially had independents whohave slowly faded away and the current contests are bipolar. The differences however, end here, as Uttarakhand firstly, always has an anti-incumbency vote, and secondly, its CMs have played musical chairs with only one completing his full tenure in eighteen years.

The state is also famous for a quick backlash, sending all five MPs from a party to Parliament which was different from the one in power in the state. When BJP was ruling with General BC Khanduri in the chair the state sent five Congress MPs to the parliament. Similarly with the Congress at the helm in 2014 and with the Modi wave sweeping the country, Uttarakhand on expected lines sent all five BJP candidates to the parliament in the last elections.The Modi wave had its effect on Himachal too and all four MP from there are from the BJP.

Of the five parliamentarians from Uttarakhand, two have been sidelined, by the party at its own peril, on the pretext of old age, one is a reserved seat and the remaining two have remained lackluster performers. The BJP has never really answered the question as to why they sidelined Uttarakhand two deserving parliamentarians – BC Khanduri and BS Koshiyari. Will this sidelining impact the next BJP candidate as the opposition will claim moral and psychological victory?  A sidelined person always underperforms.  Where all these factors taken into consideration before opening up the window of vulnerability for the next elections?

One of the biggest lessons from the Gujarat elections is that the Modi vote bank remains intact but the Congress is slowly gaining, how will it impact Uttarakhand? There is agrarian distress across the country which cost the BJP something like 20 to 25 seats in Gujarat as per estimates and Uttarakhand is a rural state. Both Uttarakhand and Himachal are hill states and the rural vote counts.

The BJP has retained its urban voter and is just about okay at the semi urban areas, but rural areas remain a problem. Another peculiar phenomenon will be that in both these states the performance of state government in 2019 midway or nearly midway is at its lowest.

The performance of the state government is always lowest at its midpoint, two years after state elections and 2019 is in that critical window.

The schemes initiated by the state government have yet not fructified the leadership suddenly looks tired thus to have parliament elections midway of the state assembly tenure is always troublesome for the ruling incumbent. In the middle of one’s tenure the model code of conduct becomes an impediment and schemes have to be put on hold, thus giving an impression of tardy progress.
The State government which wins on a Modi wave is at its vulnerable best provided the opposition can show some light at the end of the tunnel. Can Rahul Gandhi and his central team better manage the economy, streamline the GST and manage perception of efficiency and prove to the voter that corruption is off their radar. 

How will they and his five candidates convince the people that they have a better way than the current dispensation is the moot question?  In Uttarakhand the Congress also has another problem; in 2016 a lot of bigwigs deserted the party thus finding suitable candidates of stature for 2019 is going to be a problem. 

The only surviving stalwart is Harish Rawat and he is keeping his gun smoldering by firing it anywhere irrespective of the consequences. His eyes it seems were set on a revival in 2019.The state of the economy and the pro Hindu stance taken by Rahul Gandhi, going to temples and claiming to be a   “Janaudhari Hindu”, all have been done to change the image of the party which has got them some increase in vote share.

Will the Congress shed its so called “secular”, image to improve its vote share needs to be seen?
The state of Uttarakhand has traditionally been a two horse race. Of course other parties are there, but one of the lessons of these elections is the bipolar nature of contest, and Uttarakhand is a traditional bipolar state, thus the elections will be more keenly fought.

With the BJP having an advantage in taking the voter to the voting booth and the Congress party in disarray, its local level leadership demoralized by defections,  the edge certainly now or an early election is with the BJP, but how well does Congress put its demoralized house in order is worth watching?

As far as the Uttarakhand voter is concerned a BJP win ensures continuation of current leadership which brings continuity something that the state needs.  A Congress win unthinkable right now but politics and predictions are about making the unthinkable possible will pay rich dividends to democracy.   Either way as the old saying goes “you win some you lose some”.
 
(The writer is an Indian Army veteran who has authored books Gorkha: In Search Of Identity and Gorkha: Society and Politics)