The decision of two opposition parties Shiv Sena and JMM to back the BJP candidate for President has confounded the opposition ranks, with the concern being if it is just an isolated decision based on political compulsions or indicative of a longterm political realignment.
Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray’s announcement of support for Droupadi Murmu is rooted in the demand of his large parliamentary group that he break ranks with the opposition on the issue. But at the heart of Thackeray’s switch, on the back of the fall of MVA government and large-scale defection of MLAs, is the concern that the bulk of MPs too may follow suit.
If the bid to appease the MPs is the reason for backing Murmu, then pressure is bound to pile on Thackeray’s faction to join hands with BJP beyond the Presidential election, possibly by uniting with the Eknath Shinde faction, a tough call for the party that retains the Thackeray name but is otherwise facing an existential crisis. While uncertainty prevails about how the drama will pan out, it could also end with Sena ditching the MVA.
Congress and MVA are unable to figure out the final act and the confusion is evident from how NCP chief Sharad Pawar has now dissociated himself from the last Thackeray decision as CM to rename Aurangabad and Osmanabad.
The bigger conundrum is JMM making friendly overtures to BJP. Congress managers are convinced that the corruption cases against the JMM chief and his aides have forced his hand on the Presidential election as well as on turning friendly to BJP.
Realistically, Congress does not have an estimate on how JMM will play. While BJP is seen as trying to break JMM away from Congress which run the joint government in Ranchi, AICC managers are not ready to place their bet either way. While going with BJP will be difficult for the Soren outfit for the reasons of its large tribal votebase and its campaign against the “communal” party, it will also put the future of Sorens at the mercy of BJP. “We don’t think JMM will switch sides, but we cannot say it with finality,” a Congress leader said.
The sudden muddying of waters has deflated the Opposition which was just beginning to come together in the hope that it could raise an antiBJP coalition for the 2024 elections.
(With inputs from agencies)