The news coming from the Doklam standoff is that the tipping point is over but the danger not yet fully averted. Troops are just 300M apart, and two important statements have been made. The Army Chief has said that a two front war possibility is not ruled out and the Northern Army commander has stated that the Indian Army can breach the Line of Control again, clearly indicating a long harsh winter ahead.If the Indian Prime Minister was to state his inability to attend BRICS summit, the international loss of face would have been greater for China. Therefore was the averting of Doklam crisis a tactical move by China? 
 The initial news from China suddenly looked quite rosy and it is to the credit of MrModi and China’s Xi Jinping that statesmanship came first and both leaders acted in the most robust and mature manner. China and India both need peace and confidence building measures, but it may be difficult for China to so easily shed her old ways.  A section of Chinese experts are calling naming of Pakistan based terror groups in Pakistan a costly mistake. There is still a lot that meets the eye.

One day before the BRICS summit there was a warning in the Chinese media that India should not sabotage the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (C-PEC) project in which China has invested heavily. This highway in Pakistan passes through Baluchistan, where an insurgency is raging. Pakistan blames India for fueling this insurgency, which is hardly the case.

The Chinese media warning was that if India supports this insurgency, and the economic corridor is set back it will be at India’s peril. China after turning a Nelson’s eye to Pakistan’s terror group support in J&K is suddenly worried about its long term economic interests. It could also be a case of Uyghurs an estimated 80% living in Xinjiang hurting the Chinese dragon.

Suddenly at the BRICS conference there are seventeen references to terror including Haqqani network, also in the list are Lashkar and Jaish terror groups as well. Is this the turning of a new chapter or is it a sense of lull before the storm one wonders? While dealing with a power that lulled us into “Hindi ChiniBhaiBhai”, the guard still needs to remain up.

The problem in India is that we do not know very little about China nor has New Delhi tried to find out, the Indian obsession has been Pakistan while China was the main threat.
There is no peaceful rise of any nation; it’s only the Chinese who want the world to believe in the “peaceful rise of China”.  It’s a story that a six year old child will not buy, thus for China’s neighbour to believe the same will be at their own peril. 

History has shown that a strong China has been an expansionist country. “China Dreams”, by Col Liu Mingfu clearly shows that China wants to be the Number 1 power.  Besides the ‘62 war China’s vociferous media reminded India about during the Doklam standoff, the story of Tibet is also worth recalling.

Tibet was a protectorate of both China and England; it is just that China grabbed the nation by force, while India looked elsewhere.  India withdrew its trade representatives from Kashgar, Gartok, Yatung, and Gyantse, thus denying the use of the traditional trading route. China did not have lines of communication open to Leh or Xinjiang thus the importance of Shaksgam Valley and the Aksai Chin area because the modern roads constructed by China to link Xinjiang, pass through this area.

In 1951 the Chinese Military governor to Tibet General Chang Chin Wu journey was facilitated to Lhasa by India via Calcutta, thus clearly showing that the hold of China on Tibet was not good enough to have their military governor travel, yet by 1959 the Chinese occupied Tibet and the Dalia Lama sought refuge in India.

The standoff at Doklam, as also, the current two rogue nations, North Korea and Pakistan are both creations of China. There is more to it than meets the eye in suddenly the Chinese agreeing on naming terror groups. Is the hand that feeds the terror group also being bitten, or is it international pressure, the issue is open and debatable.

If the Chinese are talking of sorting out boundary disputes, these need to be done from a position of equality, if not strength, as India has not developed its infrastructure up in the mountains. Let’s not give either ourselves or our diplomacy a pat in the back, as there are many more hurdles like Nuclear Suppliers Group, and other trade related issues.  There may be more Doklam and that possibility cannot be ruled out.

India needs to prepare militarily for the long haul, strong conventional forces are a deterrent and at the international level military muscle matters. With the current warning signs immediate arming and preparation for the harsh winter ahead need first priority of the defence minister for all three services. Nations do not rise peacefully as history tells us.

The immediate neighbour to both China and Pakistan is India, and for that India needs to spend at least 2% of her GDP on defence.  Make in India can only succeed once the 50 DRDO labs and the 41 ordnance factories are pruned, because at the end of the day India remains a net importer of arms of all types. 

(The writer is an Indian Army veteran who has authored books Gorkha: In Search Of Identity and Gorkha: Society and Politics)